- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on August 31?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 31?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 31?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 31?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 31?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 31?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 31?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and supporting models places the August 31 high temperature in New York City in the upper 70s to low 80s, with trader odds heaviest on 78–79 °F. Partly sunny skies, light northeast to southeast winds, and only a 20–30% chance of brief showers are expected to limit strong afternoon heating while preventing significant cooling. This setup aligns with the late-August climatological average high of 81 °F but reflects modest suppression from increased cloud cover and a weak onshore component compared with clearer, warmer analogs. Model spreads between the NWS forecast of 82 °F and slightly cooler solutions from other guidance create the tight clustering around 78–81 °F bins, with lower-probability tails reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud timing or sea-breeze strength that could shift the peak by 2–3 °F. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion remain the key near-term catalysts.