- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 30?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 30?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 30?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 30?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 30?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 30?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 30?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance point to a partly sunny day with southwest winds and a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 82–85°F. Daytime heating under broken cloud cover, combined with moderate humidity and gusts to 20 mph, favors a peak in the low-to-mid 80s at Central Park, though scattered convection could cap temperatures if showers arrive earlier than modeled. Historical late-August norms near 80–82°F provide context, while subtle differences in forecast soundings and steering flow explain the near-even split between the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins. Updated model runs and any shifts in precipitation timing remain key near-term catalysts ahead of resolution.