- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 27?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 27?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 27?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 27?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 27?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus centers on an 80–81°F high for New York City on August 27, 2026 (43.5% implied probability), followed by 82–83°F (27.5%), reflecting National Weather Service and private forecasts calling for a lower-80s peak amid widespread cloud cover and afternoon thunderstorms. Partly sunny conditions early will give way to increasing clouds and a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms, driven by southerly flow and high humidity that limits surface heating and promotes convective development. This setup aligns with climatological norms near 82°F but is tempered by reduced insolation from storm activity, consistent with recent model runs showing similar suppression. Lower bins (78–79°F at 17%) gain traction if storms arrive earlier or are more widespread, while probabilities drop sharply above 84°F given the lack of strong subsidence or clear-sky conditions. Official observations from Central Park and surrounding airports will determine the exact daily maximum for resolution.