- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 20?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 20?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 20?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 20?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 20?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 20?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 20?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance places the August 20 peak temperature for New York City in the low to mid-80s, driving the closely matched market odds between the 80–81°F and 82–83°F bins. This aligns with climatological normals near 83°F at Central Park while reflecting limited short-range model spread around 84–86°F maxima. Key differentiating factors include variable steering patterns that could enhance or suppress onshore flow, modest urban heat island amplification, and potential afternoon cloud cover or sea breeze timing, all of which introduce enough forecast uncertainty to keep the 84–85°F outcome competitive but lower-probability. Updated model runs and official NWS briefings remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.