- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 19?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 19?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 19?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on August 19?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on August 19?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on August 19?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
National Weather Service point forecasts and major ensemble guidance currently favor a highest temperature in New York City on August 19 in the mid-to-upper 80s, driven by a building surface high promoting southerly flow and partly to mostly sunny skies. This setup aligns with the month’s warmer-than-average pattern, where Central Park highs have recently exceeded the 83°F climatological baseline. Uncertainty in afternoon cloud cover, shower timing, and sea-breeze effects creates a forecast spread into the low 90s, supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities of 47.5% for 86-87°F and 34% for 88-89°F. Updated model runs expected overnight will further refine these short-term temperature thresholds.