This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest National Weather Service and NOAA model consensus for August 17 in New York City centers on a daily high near 82–85°F, with traders assigning nearly equal weight to the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bins amid typical late-summer conditions. Primary drivers include peak solar insolation under partly cloudy skies, elevated dew points sustaining urban heat-island effects, and limited Atlantic sea-breeze penetration that could cap afternoon temperatures. Minor forecast differences hinge on the exact timing and coverage of any convective clouds or onshore flow, which recent ensemble runs show as low-probability but capable of shaving 1–2°F from the maximum. Historical Central Park data place the August average high at 83°F, providing a climatological baseline against which current guidance shows only modest deviation.