Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 16?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 16?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 90°F or higher on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 16?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 16?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 16?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for New York City on August 16, 2026, indicate a daily high in the low 80s, establishing the primary driver behind the market's strong 55.5% implied probability for the 80-81°F bin. This outcome aligns with seasonal norms near 83°F at Central Park, moderated by expected onshore flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under a stable air mass. The combined 41% odds for 78-79°F or 82-83°F reflect minor forecast spreads across ensembles, with traders incorporating real-time station data from LaGuardia and Central Park. No major heat wave or tropical influences have shifted the outlook in recent days, keeping probabilities clustered tightly around these central ranges ahead of final observations.