- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on September 4?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on September 4?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on September 4?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the German Weather Service (DWD) and GFS consensus show mostly sunny skies, moderate westerly winds, and dry conditions driving Munich’s September 4 maximum into the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius, positioning 30 °C as the leading market outcome at 47.5 % implied probability. This reflects a temporary warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal system expected to bring cooling and precipitation by September 5. Historical data place the September 4 record at 30.9 °C (1929), with a 1991–2020 average high of 21.6 °C, underscoring the current anomaly. Traders are weighting the tight clustering of ensemble forecasts near 29–31 °C while noting typical model spread of ±1–2 °C and the next official observation window on September 4 evening.