This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service shows a transition to cooler, unsettled conditions over southern Germany on August 17, with increased cloud cover, thundery showers, and westerly flow limiting daytime solar heating. This setup supports a maximum temperature near 21–23 °C in Munich, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those outcomes. Ensemble guidance indicates modest uncertainty around convective timing and coverage, which could trim or add a degree depending on exact cloud breaks. The shift follows several days of high pressure and warmer maxima, consistent with typical late-summer pattern changes that moderate temperatures toward seasonal averages of 22–24 °C. Updated short-range runs and official briefings through the morning of the 17th will refine the final peak.