- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or below on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 4?100¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on September 4?0¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus has converged on a 21°C high for Moscow on September 4 due to consistent output from numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs and Met Office guidance, projecting a daytime maximum near that threshold under partly cloudy conditions with light southwesterly flow. Official forecasts from multiple agencies align on afternoon peaks of 20–22°C, well above the climatological average high of roughly 18–19°C for early September, with minimal model spread supporting the near-certain market-implied odds. Late-day observations around 17°C and absence of unexpected warming mechanisms reinforce this positioning. Only a significant measurement discrepancy at the official station or unforecasted advection could realistically alter the outcome before resolution.