- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 2?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 2?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 2?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 2?25¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 2?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate a daytime high of 21–22°C for Moscow on September 2 under variable cloud cover, light southwesterly winds of 25–30 km/h, and a 40–50% chance of scattered showers. This aligns with the seasonal transition from late-summer warmth (27°C on September 1) toward typical early-September norms near 18–20°C. Ensemble consensus centers on 21°C as the most probable peak, with limited upside potential from clearing skies or downside risk from heavier rain and stronger winds. These conditions underpin the market-implied odds, with the 47.5% probability on 21°C reflecting aggregated trader assessment of current observational trends and short-range model agreement ahead of final hourly data releases.