- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on September 1?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on September 1?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on September 1?49¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on September 1?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus from sources including GFS-derived runs positions 24–26°C as the most probable peak temperatures for Moscow on September 1, aligning with the market's heaviest weighting on 25°C (49%) and 24°C (23.5%). Southerly to southwesterly flow in the warm sector of an approaching cyclone is advecting milder maritime air, supporting daytime highs several degrees above the early-September climatological average of roughly 18–19°C. Multiple hourly guidance suites show afternoon maxima clustering between 24–26°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with minimal precipitation risk, keeping the probability of extremes low. Traders appear to discount the small tail risks of stronger warming (26°C at 11.5%) or cooler outcomes, reflecting high confidence in short-range numerical weather prediction skill for this 24-hour horizon and the absence of disruptive frontal passages.