- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 28?55¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 28?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 28?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center for August 28 indicate a daytime high of 18–20°C in Moscow under partly cloudy skies with light rain possible and northerly winds of 3–8 m/s, consistent with multiple model runs showing peaks near 19–19.7°C by mid-afternoon. These conditions reflect suppressed heating from cloud cover, precipitation, and cooler advection that keeps readings at or slightly below the long-term average high of roughly 20°C. Market-implied odds heavily favor 19°C and 20°C as the leading outcomes because they align closely with the consensus forecast range, while higher thresholds like 21°C remain low-probability absent any late intensification or model shift. Updated agency guidance and real-time observations will be the key near-term catalysts.