- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 26?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 26?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 26?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 26?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and global models indicate a cool northwest air mass with westerly winds of 4–11 m/s, widespread cloud cover, and light rain will cap Moscow's daytime maximum near 16–19°C on August 26, 2026—well below the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 20.8°C. This pattern, persisting from the prior day's similar conditions, produces the strongest market-implied probability for a 17°C peak (47.5%), followed by 18°C (35%). Model consensus on modest diurnal warming under mostly cloudy skies and stable pressure around 750 mmHg supports these outcomes while limiting upside to 19°C or higher. Traders are weighting official guidance showing suppressed temperatures due to the lack of clear-sky heating.