- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on August 25?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on August 25?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 25?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 25?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Russian meteorological sources, including synoptic updates issued on August 24, indicate Moscow will experience mostly cloudy skies with periods of light rain and southwesterly to westerly winds on August 25. These conditions are expected to limit daytime heating, producing a daily maximum temperature in the 16–19 °C range, with multiple models converging on 17–18 °C. The implied probabilities align with this consensus: 17 °C leads because it matches the central tendency of official guidance, while 18 °C and 16 °C capture the upper and lower bounds of forecast uncertainty. A cool air mass advected from the northwest, combined with persistent cloud cover and precipitation, has suppressed temperatures below late-August climatological norms (typically 20–23 °C), keeping higher outcomes (19 °C+) at very low market-implied odds. Updated model runs and agency briefings over the next 24 hours will be the primary catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.