- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 23?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 23?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 23?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 23?60¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 23?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 23?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official forecasts from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center project Moscow daytime highs of 22–24°C on August 23 under partly cloudy skies with southwesterly winds of 7–12 m/s and minimal precipitation, positioning 23°C as the most probable peak. Earlier Yandex and international model guidance (around 22°C) have been revised upward slightly in the latest runs, reflecting modest warming from clear intervals and regional advection. Market-implied odds heavily favor 23°C (61.5%) over 22°C (30%) or 24°C (7.5%), consistent with ensemble consensus and historical late-August variability where afternoon maxima often settle near the midpoint of forecast ranges. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band from current observational trends and model agreement against the possibility of localized peaks or measurement timing differences at official stations.