- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 21?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 21?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on August 21?15¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 21?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from sources like the ECMWF and GFS show Moscow under a stable late-summer pattern with moderate Atlantic air masses and possible light showers or overcast skies on August 21, supporting a highest temperature near 22°C as the consensus outcome. This aligns with August climatology of 20–22°C daytime highs and explains the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (50.5%) and 23°C (28.5%). Recent observations from the past week indicate no strong high-pressure ridge or southerly flow to push readings higher, while any increase in cloud cover or northerly advection could keep maxima at or below 21°C. Updated model runs through August 20 confirm limited variability, with resolution hinging on afternoon maximum readings from official stations.