- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on September 4?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on September 4?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on September 4?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Milan on September 4 under clear skies and light winds, supporting the market’s heavy weighting on those outcomes. Persistent high pressure promotes subsidence and dry adiabatic warming across the Po Valley, with southeasterly flow advecting warmer air while dew points remain modest around 14–16°C. Historical September maxima average near 26°C, so this represents an above-normal but not extreme late-summer heat episode. Minor model spread—some runs peaking near 34–35°C versus others capping at 31–32°C—explains the slim probabilities assigned to adjacent bins, with resolution hinging on the official recorded high from Milan’s primary observing site. Updated runs tomorrow morning will refine the final range ahead of market settlement.