- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on August 24?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on August 24?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on August 24?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on August 24?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 24?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on August 24?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs updated through August 23, indicate a weak easterly flow and limited daytime cloud cover over the Po Valley, supporting a daytime maximum near 29°C for Milan on August 24. Dew points around 17–18°C and light southeast winds are expected to limit evaporative cooling while allowing sufficient solar heating before evening convection develops. This consensus aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 29°C at 47.5%, followed closely by 28°C and 30°C outcomes. Minor model spread arises from uncertain afternoon thunderstorm timing and urban heat-island effects, though official guidance shows little deviation from the 28–29°C range.