- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on August 21?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on August 21?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on August 21?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on August 21?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on August 21?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C or higher on August 21?4¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather indicate Milan’s maximum temperature on August 21 will most likely reach 23–24 °C, with atmospheric instability and thundery showers expected to limit daytime heating through increased cloud cover and convective cooling. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 23 °C (38.5 %) and 24 °C (22.5 %), while the 22 °C outcome (20.5 %) reflects scenarios of stronger storm activity or earlier cloud build-up. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 28–30 °C, but current steering patterns and moisture advection have shifted the distribution lower. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24 hours will provide the key data points for refining these market-implied odds.