- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on August 27?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 27?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 27?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 27?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 27?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 27?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on August 27?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for Miami on August 27, 2026, call for highs in the lower 90s under mostly sunny skies with a 50-70% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms driven by the typical summer sea-breeze circulation. This pattern—southeasterly flow, dew points in the upper 70s, and strong daytime heating—generates widespread convective clouds and rain that frequently cap maximum temperatures, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 88–93°F outcomes. Recent model consensus shows afternoon storm initiation by early afternoon, limiting insolation and preventing a climb into the mid-90s or higher, while morning readings starting in the low 80s support a daily peak near 88–91°F. Climatologically, late-August Miami highs average near 90–91°F with frequent thunderstorm suppression of extremes; the current setup matches this baseline rather than the hotter, drier conditions that produced the early-August record. Traders appear to be pricing in this standard convective cap plus modest uncertainty in exact storm timing and coverage, which keeps 90–91°F as the modal bin while leaving room for slightly cooler or warmer realizations if convection is delayed or suppressed. Updated NWS guidance and new model runs later on August 26 will provide the next key inputs for refinement.