- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 5?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 5?50¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on September 5?21¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from multiple agencies converge on a high temperature near 25–26°C for Mexico City on September 5, aligning with the market’s heaviest positioning on those exact outcomes. At 2,240 meters elevation, the city’s subtropical highland climate typically caps daytime maxima even in early September, when the North American monsoon brings frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover that suppresses peak heating. Recent runs show partly cloudy skies with a 60–85% chance of showers or thunderstorms after midday, which would further limit warming by reducing solar insolation. Historical climatology places the September average high at 25°C, providing a firm baseline; deviations above 27°C would require unusually clear, stable conditions that current guidance does not support. Traders appear to be weighting this consensus while allowing modest probability for drier scenarios that could push readings marginally higher.