- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on September 2?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on September 2?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 2?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 2?46¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 2?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 2?4¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for the highest temperature in Mexico City on September 2, 2026, centers on 23–25°C because current forecasts and climatological norms point to moderate highs typical of the rainy season at the city's 2,240-meter elevation. Multiple models, including those from the Met Office and regional services, project daytime peaks of 21–24°C amid partly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorm chances of 50–80%, which limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling. September averages hover near 21–23°C for daily maxima, with frequent afternoon convection from tropical moisture influx suppressing stronger warming. Recent observations show overnight lows around 13–16°C and persistent humidity near 60–90%, setting up for a similar daytime range rather than outlier heat. Market-implied probabilities favor 24°C (45.5%) and 25°C (23.5%) over cooler or hotter outcomes, reflecting trader consensus on forecast consensus amid model spread and the potential for brief clearing to allow slightly higher readings before storms develop. No anomalous warming patterns or clear-sky anomalies have emerged to shift odds toward 26°C+ or below 22°C.