- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 28?65¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 28?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 28?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 28?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus strongly favors a daily high of 25°C in Mexico City on August 28, 2026 (64.5% implied probability), followed by 24°C (23%) and 26°C (12.5%). This distribution reflects the tight clustering of official and model forecasts around 22–26°C under typical late-summer conditions. Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) produces a subtropical highland climate where August daily highs normally average 24–25°C. Persistent moisture from the rainy season, combined with frequent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and orographic effects from surrounding mountains, limits daytime heating and caps extremes. On August 27 the observed high reached 23–25°C amid scattered rain; similar patterns are forecast for the 28th, with many models showing afternoon peaks near 23°C and a few allowing brief clearing to 25–26°C if convective activity remains lighter. Recent National Meteorological Service guidance and ensemble outputs emphasize southeast winds, 10–20 km/h gusts, and widespread shower chances, reinforcing the narrow 23–25°C window. Higher outcomes (27°C+) carry low probability because sustained sunshine or drier air would be needed to overcome the seasonal baseline, while sub-23°C readings would require unusually persistent cloud and rain. The market’s concentration on 24–25°C therefore mirrors the current consensus range and limited upside potential from prevailing atmospheric conditions.