- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 18?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 18?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong consensus from numerical weather models and official forecasts supports the 99.8% market-implied probability for a 26°C daily maximum in Mexico City on August 18. At the city's 2,240-meter elevation in a highland basin, typical August conditions feature moderate highs near 24–26°C (75–79°F), moderated by the rainy season's broken cloud cover and isolated convective showers that restrict peak solar insolation. Recent guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate aligns on partly cloudy skies with limited heating potential, consistent with climatological baselines and historical patterns of afternoon precipitation curbing temperatures. While model consensus remains tight, minor shifts in storm timing, reduced cloud cover, or stronger insolation could realistically allow a 27°C outcome or confine the high to 25°C, though current atmospheric steering patterns make these low-probability deviations.