Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 16?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 16?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 16?56¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 16?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 16?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 31°C or higher on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus centers on a peak of 25–27°C for Mexico City on August 16, 2026, with 26°C holding the strongest implied probability at 56.5%. This positioning stems from the city's high elevation (~2,240 m), which consistently moderates temperatures, combined with peak rainy-season dynamics that limit extreme daytime heating through cloud cover, humidity, and frequent afternoon convection. Climatological baselines show typical August daily maxima near 23–25°C, rarely exceeding 27–28°C. Current forecasts from multiple models align with this range, projecting highs of roughly 78–80°F (25.5–26.7°C) under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with a 50–70% chance of showers or thunderstorms later in the day. These storms, driven by tropical moisture and diurnal heating, act as a natural cap on temperatures by increasing albedo and evaporative cooling. Recent observations from early-to-mid August have shown peaks clustering around 26°C, reinforcing the market's lean toward that outcome while leaving modest room for 25°C or 27°C depending on exact rain timing and model adjustments. No anomalous warming patterns, such as suppressed convection or stronger subtropical ridging, appear in the latest guidance, keeping higher outcomes (28°C+) at very low probabilities. The market's tight clustering around 26°C thus reflects the convergence of elevation-driven moderation, seasonal rainfall effects, and short-term forecast agreement.