- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 23°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 7?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 7?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 7?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 7?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 7?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 7?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 7?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent southwest monsoon activity over the western Philippines is the dominant factor capping Manila's daytime heating for September 7, with widespread cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity limiting solar insolation. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model runs indicate mostly 28–29 °C maxima amid frequent rain, below the long-term September average high near 31 °C. Recent days have shown similar suppression, with observed highs in the upper 20s °C under comparable conditions. These elements concentrate trader-implied probability on 29–30 °C outcomes while leaving modest room for brief clearing that could allow 31 °C if convection is delayed. Updated model guidance and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift the distribution.