- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 23°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 6?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 6?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 6?42¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 6?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 6?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent monsoon-driven rainfall and widespread cloud cover are the main factors capping daytime heating in Manila, positioning 29–30°C as the market’s leading outcomes for the September 6 high. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models issued on September 5 project a maximum of 28–29°C under mostly overcast skies, westerly winds of 10–15 mph, and 70–100% rain probability, consistent with the suppressed highs observed in the preceding days. September’s climatological average high of ~31°C is tempered by high humidity (85–95%) and frequent showers that reduce insolation and enhance evaporative cooling. Model consensus shows limited upside potential for 31°C or higher unless afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities below 28°C remain low given the warm, moist boundary layer. Updated PAGASA and numerical guidance on September 6 will provide the final resolution inputs.