- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 4?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 4?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 4?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 4?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 4?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C or higher on September 4?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent southwest monsoon influences, enhanced recently by Tropical Storm Pilandok before its exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility, are driving cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and widespread precipitation over Manila on September 4. These conditions limit daytime solar heating and suppress maximum temperatures, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models converging on highs near 28–30°C amid high humidity and southwest winds. Trader consensus around 29–31°C reflects this atmospheric setup and typical September climatology for the region, where monsoon patterns frequently cap peaks below seasonal averages. Key upcoming factors include the next PAGASA regional update and refined model runs that could shift resolution probabilities if clearer skies develop.