- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 2?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 2?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 2?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 2?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 2?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C or higher on September 2?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader consensus favors a peak of 32°C in Manila on September 2, reflecting model runs that allow brief periods of reduced cloud cover amid the southwest monsoon. Multiple forecasts from PAGASA and international sources indicate widespread thunderstorms and 80–90% rain probability, driven by strong southwesterly flow and high moisture, which typically caps daytime heating near 29–30°C through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. Recent sub-seasonal outlooks highlight above-normal rainfall over the National Capital Region for late August into early September, consistent with the active monsoon trough and El Niño background conditions that can enhance convective activity. Historical September maxima average around 30–31°C, but persistent cloudiness and showers suppress extremes unless steering patterns shift to permit more insolation. Market-implied odds place 31–33°C in the top three outcomes, underscoring uncertainty in exact cloud timing and intensity ahead of the next model updates.