- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 1?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 1?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 1?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 1?23¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 1?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 1?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models and climatological context position 31–33°C as the dominant range for Manila’s maximum temperature on September 1, 2026. Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as PAGASA, NOAA-influenced models, and regional services consistently indicate daytime highs near 30–32°C (86–90°F) under partly to mostly cloudy skies, with a 50–90% chance of showers or thunderstorms driven by the southwest monsoon (Habagat) and an active monsoon trough. These conditions limit solar heating and keep surface temperatures from exceeding seasonal norms. Historical September averages place Manila’s mean daily maximum at approximately 31–32°C, with extremes rarely surpassing 35°C in early September absent clear, stable anticyclonic flow. Recent August 31 observations near 32°C and ongoing monsoon-enhanced moisture (high dew points near 76–80°F / 24–27°C) reinforce the 32°C outcome’s leading market-implied probability of 46.5%. A modest upward bias toward 33°C (24%) reflects residual uncertainty in cloud-cover timing and any brief clearing, while probabilities drop sharply above 34°C given persistent convective activity and steering patterns that favor continued rain-cooled air masses. Lower outcomes (31°C at 17%) remain plausible if heavier or more persistent rainfall develops. Updated model runs and official PAGASA briefings on September 1 morning will provide the final resolution inputs for this single-day maximum.