- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C or below on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 31?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 31?63¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 31?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 31?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C or higher on August 31?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and local monitoring point to a daytime peak of 31–32°C in Manila on August 31 amid typical southwest monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southwesterly winds of 15–20 mph are limiting surface heating while high humidity near 75–85% supports heat index values above 35°C. Historical August climatology shows average highs of 30–31°C, with 32°C occurring frequently when convective activity remains limited. Model consensus and morning observations near 29°C reinforce trader positioning toward 32°C as the most probable outcome, with only modest upside risk to 33°C if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated guidance later today could refine these probabilities ahead of the daily maximum.