- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C or higher on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C or below on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 30?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 30?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 30?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 30?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 30?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 30?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 30?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent heavy monsoon rains and extensive cloud cover from the enhanced southwest monsoon (habagat) are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Manila on August 30, 2026. An active low-pressure area east of northern Luzon has strengthened the southwest flow, delivering widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall (50–200 mm in affected areas) across Metro Manila through the weekend. This maintains thick cloud decks that reduce incoming solar radiation and promote evaporative cooling, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly above seasonal norms rather than allowing typical late-August peaks. Official PAGASA guidance for Metro Manila lists a 24–27°C daily range with 90% rain probability on August 30, while international models (GFS-influenced and Met Office) cluster around 28–30°C highs amid continued showers and southwest winds of 10–15 m/s. Historical August averages (≈30–31°C) provide context, but the current synoptic setup favors suppression of extremes. Trader consensus—centered on 29–31°C with 30°C at 40.5% implied probability—reflects this balance of model guidance, the intensity of ongoing monsoon rains, and the low likelihood of clearing skies or significant warming before the 24-hour period ends. Updated PAGASA or NHC-equivalent briefings on monsoon evolution remain the key near-term data points that could shift odds.