- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 26?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 26?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 26?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 26?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 26?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 26?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 26?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on August 26?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on August 26?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Manila's peak temperature on August 26 centers on the Southwest Monsoon driving widespread cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which limit daytime solar insolation and keep highs in the 30–33°C range. Official PAGASA guidance and multiple models (GFS, Met Office, local ensembles) indicate moderate-to-strong southwesterly flow, high humidity, and frequent convection that caps afternoon peaks, with recent 24-hour observations near 31°C. The close 32°C (37.5%) versus 33°C (30.5%) split reflects uncertainty in exact rain timing and cloud thickness—earlier or heavier showers favor the lower end, while partial clearing could allow brief spikes to 33°C. Lower probabilities for 34°C+ or sub-31°C align with the monsoon’s consistent suppression of extreme heat relative to drier-season baselines. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings through the evening of the 25th remain the key near-term catalysts.