- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 25?54¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 25?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 25?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 25?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on August 25?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on August 25?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders view 31°C or 32°C as the most probable daily high in Manila today because monsoon-driven cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to moderate peak heating under typical August conditions. Southwest monsoon flows often deliver variable convection that limits intense solar radiation, with historical baselines showing Manila highs averaging near 31–32°C during this period. Ensemble forecast models exhibit minor divergence on afternoon cloud thickness and rainfall timing, sustaining the close split between the two leading outcomes. Official guidance highlights brief windows of clearer skies that could allow urban heat island effects to nudge readings to 32°C, while stronger showers would likely hold the maximum at 31°C. Afternoon surface observations will determine the final resolution.