- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 24°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 24?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 24?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 24?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 24?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 24?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 24?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C or higher on August 24?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Trader sentiment for Manila's August 24 high temperature centers on official PAGASA guidance of a 30°C maximum alongside model spreads showing 30–32°C under persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) influence. Cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms—forecast at 60–80% probability—limit solar heating and cap daytime peaks, while southwesterly winds near 15 mph and high humidity (70–85%) moderate further warming. Recent monsoon enhancement from an approaching system adds uncertainty in cloud thickness and timing of convective activity, which can shave 1–2°C off maxima if storms develop earlier. Historical climatology places typical late-August highs near 30–31°C, aligning with the closely matched 31°C (38.5%) and 32°C (32.5%) market shares; 30°C (14.5%) remains plausible if heavier rain arrives sooner. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings tomorrow morning represent the next key data points that could shift implied probabilities.