- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C or below on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 23?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 23?61¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 23?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 23?14¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C or higher on August 23?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Southwest monsoon conditions dominate trader positioning for Manila's August 23 peak temperature, with PAGASA outlooks showing a 33°C high and 40% rain chance alongside partly cloudy to cloudy skies and isolated showers. Persistent cloud cover and scattered convection from the habagat reduce surface heating compared to clearer days, supporting the tight 45.5% implied probability on 33°C versus 36% on 32°C and 20% on 34°C. Recent model consensus and climatological baselines around 30–32°C in August reflect typical monsoon moderation, while any timing or intensity shifts in afternoon thunderstorms could tip resolution between the leading outcomes. Updated PAGASA briefings and real-time observations remain the key near-term catalysts.