- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 21?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 21?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 21?64¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on August 21?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
PAGASA’s extended outlook for Metro Manila points to a 32°C high on August 21 under southwest monsoon conditions, with 60% rain chance and 26°C lows, aligning with the market’s strong 63.5% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers from the active monsoon and nearby tropical systems like Neneng limit daytime heating while maintaining typical August humidity and instability. Historical climatology shows Manila August maxima averaging near 30–31°C, so current model consensus favors the narrow 31–33°C band that together commands over 99% of trader positioning. Updated PAGASA guidance and any intensification of monsoon rainfall remain the key near-term variables that could shift the final recorded high.