- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 5?9¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 5?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 5?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 5?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 5?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on September 5?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from global models indicate Madrid's September 5 maximum will likely reach 35–37°C, with GFS and European guidance showing afternoon peaks near 35–36°C under increasing cloud cover and light southeasterly flow that limits further warming. This follows a brief heat surge peaking near 38–39°C on September 4. Historical September 5 records top out at 37.4°C, while the 1991–2020 average high is 28.9°C. Model spread arises mainly from variable high-cloud thickness and boundary-layer moisture, which can suppress daytime maxima by 1–2°C. Updated runs from official agencies over the next 48 hours will refine whether the peak crosses into the 37–38°C range favored by current market-implied odds.