- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C or higher on September 4?0¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 4?100¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecast models, including GFS runs, indicate Madrid will reach a daily maximum near 38°C on September 4 under clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dry conditions that favor strong daytime heating. This aligns with the market-implied odds, where traders have converged on 38°C as the most likely outcome based on real-time observational trends and ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks in that range. The city’s September climatology averages around 29°C, so this represents notable warmth, though well below the 37°C record set in 2016. Final official readings from Spain’s meteorological agency could shift if unexpected cloud cover or a timing error in the peak occurs before resolution.