- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 4?57¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 4?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 4?10¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent numerical weather prediction models, including those from European and global ensembles, indicate peak surface temperatures in Madrid on September 4 will likely reach 37–39 °C amid clear skies, light southerly winds, and strong daytime heating under a persistent high-pressure ridge. This setup favors the market-implied 56.5% probability on 39 °C and 25% on 40 °C, reflecting modest upward bias in afternoon maxima relative to the long-term September 4 average of 29 °C. Low humidity and minimal cloud cover enhance insolation, while slight model spread in boundary-layer mixing and advection keeps a smaller probability mass on 38 °C or 40 °C. Updated short-range guidance expected within the next 12–18 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.