- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 2?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 2?72¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 2?20¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Official AEMET forecasts and a yellow high-temperature alert position 36°C as the most probable daily maximum for Madrid on September 2, 2026, under clear skies, negligible cloud cover, and light variable winds favoring daytime heating. Subsidence within a stable high-pressure regime, combined with Madrid’s inland continental setting at ~650 m elevation, supports efficient solar warming without significant moisture or precipitation to moderate temperatures. Recent model consensus and hourly guidance cluster around afternoon peaks of 35–36°C, consistent with the market’s 71% implied probability for 36°C and secondary weighting toward 37°C. Historical context shows the date’s all-time record at 36.4°C (2014) and a 1991–2020 average high near 30°C, underscoring how current anticyclonic conditions elevate readings above climatology while remaining within plausible model spread.