- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 1?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 1?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on September 1?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 1?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 1?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and other centers indicate peak temperatures in Madrid on September 1 near 34–35 °C under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and clear skies, consistent with above-normal early-September warmth across central Spain. Trader sentiment remains closely split between these two outcomes because small variations in afternoon heating, urban heat-island effects, or exact timing of the daily maximum can shift the observed high by 1 °C. Historical September maxima average roughly 28–30 °C, making the current pattern an anomaly driven by a persistent warm ridge. Updated short-range forecasts and the final AEMET bulletin before midnight local time represent the key near-term data points that could refine market-implied odds.