- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or below on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 28?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 28?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 28?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 28?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 28?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 28?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or higher on August 28?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS outputs and agency guidance, indicate a high-pressure system will deliver clear to mostly sunny conditions over Madrid on August 28, 2026, with light southwesterly winds and minimal cloud cover limiting daytime heating. This setup follows cooler, cloudier weather on the 27th that introduced a fresher air mass, keeping maximum temperatures below the late-August climatological average of 30.6°C. Ensemble guidance clusters around 25–27°C, aligning with trader emphasis on 27°C (44.5% implied probability) and 26°C (34.0%), while lower odds for 28°C or higher reflect limited warming potential under the current synoptic pattern. Final observations from official stations will resolve the market.