- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on August 27?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on August 27?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or higher on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C or below on August 27?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 27?34¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 27?24¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 27?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 27?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 27?2¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current short-range forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of roughly 23–25°C in Madrid on August 27, 2026, aligning with the market's tight clustering around those bins. A southwest flow ahead of an approaching Atlantic front is advecting cooler, more humid maritime air into central Spain, increasing cloud cover and the chance of light showers or drizzle that limit daytime heating. This setup contrasts with the seasonal climatological average high near 31°C and recent days' readings in the upper 20s to low 30s. Key differentiating factors among the leading outcomes include the precise timing and coverage of any precipitation, the depth of low-level moisture, and the strength of mixing under the strengthening gradient winds. Ensemble spreads in global models show modest uncertainty in whether the daily maximum reaches the mid-20s or stays capped near 23°C, depending on how quickly the marine layer arrives and whether breaks of sun allow brief additional warming. With resolution two days away, the close probabilities on 23–25°C reflect traders' assessment of this model consensus and the limited upside risk from stronger insolation. Updated runs from agencies such as AEMET and the European Centre will provide the next key signals before market close.