- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or below on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on August 24?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on August 24?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on August 24?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 24?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 24?22¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 24?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 24?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or higher on August 24?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast updates from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather position 27–28°C as the most probable maximum temperature in Madrid on August 24, aligning with market-implied odds favoring those outcomes at over 67% combined. A cooler air mass and increased cloud cover have tempered highs below the seasonal average of 31–32°C, with model consensus showing limited afternoon heating under moderate southwesterly flow. Official guidance highlights minimal precipitation risk and stable conditions, though small shifts in steering patterns or insolation could nudge readings toward 29°C. Short-range model runs and observational data from the past 48 hours reinforce this range, with next updates from numerical weather prediction centers expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution.