- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 21?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 21?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 21?55¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 21?37¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 21?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 21?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 21?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 21?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent meteorological forecasts from sources like AEMET and international models indicate Madrid's maximum temperature on August 21 will likely fall between 30–32°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and minimal cloud cover, positioning 31°C as the market favorite at 53.5% implied probability. Recent days have seen highs near 32–35°C with a slight cooling trend expected by midweek due to northerly flow, reducing the chance of extremes above 33°C to under 5%. Historical August averages near 31°C provide baseline context, while short-range model runs through the weekend support this narrow range ahead of final verification.