Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C or below on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 18?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 18?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C or higher on August 18?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?40¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest forecasts from AEMET, ECMWF, and BBC Weather position 38°C as the most likely maximum for Madrid on August 18, with 39°C close behind, under a persistent anticyclonic ridge delivering clear skies, light northeasterly flow, and strong diurnal heating across the central Meseta. Madrid’s continental location and urban heat-island effect typically amplify afternoon peaks by 1–2°C relative to surrounding rural stations, aligning with the current above-normal temperature anomaly where mid-August observations have frequently reached 37–40°C. Model consensus shows negligible precipitation risk or convective cooling through the forecast window, though minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture or timing of peak insolation could nudge the exact high between the tightly clustered 37–39°C outcomes. Traders appear to weight these stable synoptic conditions heavily while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band two days before resolution.