Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 16?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?53¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 16?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on August 16?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on August 16?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest ensemble forecasts from European models position 34°C as the most probable Madrid high on August 16, reflecting a dominant subtropical ridge with clear skies, light southerly flow, and daytime surface heating under weak subsidence. This setup favors afternoon maxima in the 33–35°C range, consistent with mid-August climatology for the region, though localized variations in urban heat island effects and slight model spread introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks. Recent runs show limited cloud development or frontal influence, keeping probabilities concentrated on the upper end of typical summer values while lower outcomes remain remote absent unexpected cooling. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these implied odds.