Highest temperature in Madrid on August 15?
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 15?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 15?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 15?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 15?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 15?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C or higher on August 15?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Latest ensemble forecasts from European and global models indicate a moderating influence from Atlantic flow and scattered showers, positioning Madrid's peak temperature on August 15 near 32–34°C and anchoring trader consensus around the 33°C outcome. High-resolution runs show daytime maxima sensitive to cloud cover timing and boundary-layer moisture, with historical August climatology placing the median near 32°C but recent heatwave persistence elevating upside risk. Updated model cycles through the next 24–48 hours, particularly ECMWF and AIFS guidance on wind shift and instability, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.