Highest temperature in Madrid on August 13?
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 45°C or higher on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C or below on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 13?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 13?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on August 13?<1¢
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Strong atmospheric stability from a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula has driven Madrid's surface temperatures toward 40°C on August 13, with official AEMET observations and model consensus from GFS and ARPEGE confirming afternoon peaks at or very near this threshold under clear skies and minimal mixing. This aligns with the market's near-100% implied probability for exactly 40°C, reflecting trader assessment of verified station data rather than broader seasonal averages around 33–35°C. Realistic challenges include rapid afternoon convective cooling, slight shifts in wind direction introducing moister Atlantic air, or post-observation calibration adjustments by the reporting agency that could nudge the daily maximum into the 39°C or 41°C bin.